Why the Protein Boom Is Headed for a Whey Supply Crunch

The protein aisle is expanding fast, and grocers should be watching the pressure building behind it. Demand for whey protein is climbing faster than the supply chain can respond, driven by forces that show every sign of lasting.

Aging, GLP-1s and a Decade of Research

The whey protein isolate and whey protein concentrate markets are influenced by the same factors — concentrate being the more affordable, everyday form, and isolate the purer, higher-protein one that's had most of its fat and lactose filtered out.  It is my belief that those factors are even more exaggerated for the higher-purity isolates. Growing demand for greater protein intake is supported by countless randomized, controlled trials conducted in the last decade.  Among the results is clear evidence that shows aged individuals require more protein than younger ones to maintain optimal muscle health and preserve lean muscle mass. We have reached a point where the majority of North Americans are older than age 40.  And, they are doing their research: according to a 2024 International Food Information Council study, 90% of adults aged 35 and older are actively seeking to increase their daily protein intake.

Busy lifestyles can make it difficult to get all protein from real food alone. Protein is often intentionally incorporated into breakfast to get a head start on daily protein intake. Consumer research shows that 56% of North Americans are adequately prioritizing protein intake at breakfast, and I expect that share to keep rising as science becomes common knowledge. 

Then, there is the GLP-1 effect.  One in eight North Americans is reported to be using weight loss medication. That translates into 40 million potential new protein users. Individuals taking GLP-1s are generally running a calorie deficit somewhere between 800 and 1,200 calories per day. To minimize muscle loss typically associated with GLP-1 use, higher protein intake is recommended by registered dietitians and medical practitioners to maintain muscle health.

Muscle loss is inevitable with increased levels of weight loss. Many researchers and health practitioners are concerned about loss of muscle while users concurrently lose weight. Both increased protein intake and resistance training three times a week have been shown to reduce the amount of muscle loss. I believe awareness of those muscle-health risks is spilling over into a general population that is not taking GLP-1s, people looking to improve their BMI without prescription medicines.

The current protein demand is structural and here to stay. It is not just a passing fad.  Demand is increasing because of population growth, increasing use of weight-loss medications, and years of research that changed how much protein people think they need. Normal ups and downs in commodities eventually fade, but these pressures keep growing. 

The Catch: Whey Starts with Cheese

Here is the problem: while demand for protein is soaring, there is no way to instantaneously increase protein output unless cheese production increases at the same rate. Most general consumers are likely unaware that whey proteins, both isolates and concentrates, are derived from a byproduct of the cheesemaking process. After the cow's milk is processed — using rennet, an acid process, or filtration alone — the milk is separated into cheese curds and a whey stream. That whey stream is then purified to produce an isolate or concentrate.

If cheese consumption decreases or does not increase at the rate of whey protein demand, then scarcity exists — part of today's dilemma. Protein manufacturers are responding by increasing the number of facilities that purify the whey stream from cheese manufacturing and milk purification, but there is delay. Companies are also building facilities that rely on other means of producing whey protein. However, these will take years and billions of dollars to scale to meet the increased demand.

What it Means on the Shelf

For grocers, the takeaway is to expect tighter supply and firmer pricing in a category that shoppers increasingly treat as a staple. Planning assortment and price around that reality now will be easier than reacting to it later.

When it comes to advising shoppers, real food should always be prioritized when looking to ingest required protein. Whey protein powders often make it more convenient to ingest the right amount of protein, specifically at breakfast. If whey supply prevents access, a plant-based protein or a plant-rich smoothie can be prepared that delivers adequate protein.

When selecting a protein for general use, whey isolates have lower lactose levels, meaning low or no GI distress; they taste better; and they have higher levels of leucine, a key amino acid that is involved in the repair and growth of muscles. Whey concentrates must be more than 80% pure on a dried basis, while whey isolates must be more than 90%. That higher purity leads to more desirable characteristics such as better mixing, texture and taste.

The protein category keeps growing. The supply that feeds it, tied to cheese production and constrained by the years it takes to build new processing capacity, simply cannot keep pace. Grocers who understand that disconnect now will be better positioned to manage assortment, pricing and shopper expectations as the squeeze arrives.

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About the Author
Darcy Haggith is the founder and CEO of the protein coffee company Polar Joe and its parent company, Gruppo Nutrition. He is a microbiologist with 30 years in pharmaceutical manufacturing, including work at Pfizer and Accucaps. He is a passionate cyclist, rower, and advocate for healthy living and aging. He has contributed to more than 40 research projects, collaborated with prominent biomedical health researchers, and founded ProteinPerDay.com, an unbranded resource for evidence-based protein and muscle health guidance.